When you have any hobby that involves being outdoors during winter you can become a bit obsessed with weather watching. Living on our little island on the edge of the Atlantic we’re quite used to changeable weather. We’re very lucky really. The number of days a year that are really too hot, too cold, too wet or too windy are low, especially compared to a lot of other places. Perhaps it’s the relative benignness of our weather that makes any extreme into such a talking point. The same latitude in Canada is currently -30°C. Good luck running outdoors there!

This weekend forecasters are predicting an Atlantic storm with high winds and heavy rain. It’s bad enough to have been assigned a name, Ciara. As I type, Ciara is still over the eastern coast of the US, but a strong jet stream is predicted to zoom her eastwards during Saturday. There’s also a chance that the polar jet will come into play and turn the rain to snow early next week – more likely over Scotland and higher ground, but it could happen.

Some race events on Sunday have already been cancelled on safety grounds. Others are asking participants to check their websites and social media regularly, preparing them for a late cancellation.

But what about our runs? What about running on your own? What should we do?

We don’t have gazebos and direction arrows to worry about blowing away, or hundreds of people travelling long distances in potentially dangerous conditions, or marshals whose welfare we need to look after. That means that it’s less clear cut. When it comes to running in any kind of extreme weather you are responsible for your safety and for making sensible decisions. You have to assess the actual risks whether that’s of flying debris, ice, extreme heat, but you also need to take into account the discomfort factor – heavy rain isn’t often dangerous, but it can be miserable! Use your common sense.

One missed run won’t derail your training. Two or three won’t either. Missing a week of training is not a problem. Do a YouTube yoga video instead or try out a new class. In the unlikely event that we get a prolonged period of ice and snow then you will need to find alternative ways to train: off road running, cross training at the gym or pool, the dreaded treadmill.

Coming back to our organised run on Sunday, I still hope we will be able to go ahead. I will be in the usual place at 8.30am, ready to run. We’ll be doing the Two Tunnels route so much of it is very sheltered. Plan A is to stick to our usual MO, running out for 60 minutes and back for 60. Plan B is to run through the tunnels and to turn back at Midford and repeat the tunnels as required. Plan C is to sack it off and go for coffee – I’m keeping an open mind!

The main message is stay safe and don’t stress.

If you want to read our runners' recommendations for winter running click here.